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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 32
2019-09-20 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 130.1W ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slow motion between the west-northwest and west-southwest is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2019-09-20 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20(22) 9(31) 2(33) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 32
2019-09-20 10:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-20 04:53:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:53:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:53:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 31
2019-09-20 04:53:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory. The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from TAFB and SAB. A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from the previous one. There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours, and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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