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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 34
2019-09-20 22:43:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 624 WTPZ23 KNHC 202043 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 33
2019-09-20 16:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 970 WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE. Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-20 16:46:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 14:46:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 15:31:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-20 16:45:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.7, -130.2 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 33
2019-09-20 16:45:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO ON THE UPSWING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 130.2W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 130.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is possible today, but only small changes in intensity are expected during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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