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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-20 22:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 21:53:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 34
2019-09-20 22:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202045 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko hasn't changed much over the past 6 hours. Microwave imagery continues to show a fairly well-defined inner-core, but cloud tops have been warming during the past few hours. Satellite-based estimates continue to hover around 50 kt, and the estimated intensity is therefore held at that value. Kiko has turned to the northwest yet again, and should turn westward later today. There is no change in the forecast reasoning. Kiko will likely move on a wave-like path westward for the next several days, losing latitude as a mid-level ridge to the north amplifies, and gaining latitude as the ridge weakens. The only difference in the NHC forecast is that Kiko is forecast to move very slightly faster than it was before. It should be noted that there is still a decent amount of spread in the guidance regarding how quickly Kiko will move west even though the multi-model consensus, which is the basis for the NHC forecast, has not changed much. The tropical storm may have exhausted its opportunity to strengthen now that it has begun to turn back westward, and all of the reliable intensity guidance forecasts that Kiko will slowly weaken. The NHC forecast shows the same, but maintains Kiko as a tropical storm, still over the eastern North Pacific, through day 5. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone, and small short-term fluctuations in intensity are certainly possible during the next few days, but anticipating such fluctuations is beyond the current science of hurricane forecasting. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 17.9N 130.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 132.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 16.9N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 16.5N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 18.2N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 18.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2019-09-20 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202045 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 16(24) 4(28) 1(29) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-20 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.9, -130.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 34
2019-09-20 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202044 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 130.8W ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 130.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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