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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-29 07:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 15.9, -100.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 3A
2019-09-29 07:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290534 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 100.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.9 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, if the center moves closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-29 07:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 05:34:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 03:31:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-29 04:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:43:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:43:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-29 04:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined. In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain. If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated below. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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