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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-29 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 16.0, -101.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-29 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 101.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours unless the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-29 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Satellite images and Acapulco radar data show that the storm has become a little better organized with some evidence of banding features. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the southern semicircle of the circulation while the cyclone continues to experience some northeasterly shear. Based on data from a scatterometer overpass, the current intensity is set at 40 kt which is also the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast for Narda is problematic and uncertain, since the future strength of the cyclone depends on how much the cyclone will interact with the mountainous land mass of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Some of the models, such as the ECMWF and GFS, take the cyclone inland within the next 24 hours and do not show the system recovering from its land interaction in 24-48 hours. A little more strengthening should occur today, assuming the center remains offshore. The official intensity forecast assumes that the center will move along the coast within the next day or so, and this would cause some weakening and disruption of the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is in fairly close agreement with the LGEM guidance. The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward or 315/7 kt. Over the next couple of days, the tropical cyclone is likely to move generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. Later in the period, a trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula should cause the system to turn toward the north-northwest. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus guidance. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-29 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 420 FOPZ11 KNHC 290832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 23(23) 12(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 38(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MANZANILLO 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 11 21(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) L CARDENAS 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-29 10:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 863 WTPZ21 KNHC 290831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 330SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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