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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-29 22:55:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 19.1, -103.5 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-29 22:55:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292055 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of western and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Narda. Watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area on Monday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 103.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern coasts of Mexico tonight, then emerge over the Pacific early Monday. It is then forecast to move near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the center is over land. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the Pacific. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Narda Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-09-29 22:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 292055 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NARDA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z...INLAND AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 103.0W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-29 19:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 17:50:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 15:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 5A
2019-09-29 19:50:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 174 WTPZ31 KNHC 291749 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA NOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS AND MANZANILLO... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 103.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 103.1 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the Pacific on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and Narda is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the warning area and should continue for the next few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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