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Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 11

2019-07-30 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 300239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 140.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics

2019-07-29 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 20:32:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 21:24:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2019-07-29 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X 6( 6) 78(84) 7(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 54(55) 10(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 30(30) 13(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 60(72) 2(74) X(74) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 22(48) 1(49) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 3(36) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)

2019-07-29 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT SHOULD BECOME ONE SOON... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Jul 29 the center of Erick was located near 12.7, -138.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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