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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 7
2019-07-29 04:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 ...ERICK STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 133.1W ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 133.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the west-northwest and a slower forward speed is expected to start on Tuesday and last through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with Erick likely becoming a hurricane on Monday, and potentially a major hurricane on Tuesday. Some weakening is forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-07-29 04:47:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290247 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 132.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 133.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2019-07-28 22:48:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Jul 2019 20:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Jul 2019 21:24:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-28 22:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282047 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 Although Erick's upper-level outflow has continued to improve, the overall convective pattern hasn't changed much. The earlier increase in central convection has been waning somewhat in recent satellite imagery, and the low-level center remains displaced just north of the central convection. However, passive microwave imagery indicates that the center has made a slight west-southwestward jog, possibly due to reformation closer to the strongest convection. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. An 1807Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated a 36-kt vector in the northeastern quadrant, and allowing for some undersampling also supports the 40-kt initial intensity. The initial motion estimate is 270/15 kt. It is possible that the initial position could be too far north, and a southward shift may be required on the next advisory. However, the general trend in the model guidance remains a westward motion for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as Erick moves into a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge. By 72 hours and beyond, the weakness is forecast to fill with the narrow ridge building westward across the Hawaiian Islands. This is expected to force Erick on a general westward to west-northwestward track through the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Erick is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin Tuesday morning. The new NHC forecast track has again been shifted south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position, and lies down the center of the tightly packed guidance envelope and is close to a blend of the consensus track models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN. The aforementioned ASCAT-A pass indicated that Erick has maintained a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 20 nmi. The small RMW, low vertical wind shear, and SSTs near 28 deg C continue to support at least steady strengthening for the next few days, and Erick is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours. Although rapid intensification (RI) remains a possibility owing to the small RMW and low shear, the recent pronounced dry mid-level intrusion into the inner-core region, along with mid-level shear undercutting the other favorable outflow pattern, is expected to hinder any RI for at least the next 24 hours. By 72 hours, strong westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to affect the cyclone, inducing a steady weakening trend through the 120-h period. The latest Navy COAMPS model has backed off slightly and is now forecasting Erick to become a high-end category-3 hurricane in about 72 hours. However, this scenario has again been disregarded due to the abundance of dry mid-level air expected to affect the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and closely follows the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 12.0N 131.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 13.5N 139.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 14.1N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 15.3N 146.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 16.2N 150.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 16.8N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-07-28 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 282047 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 34(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 75(81) 2(83) 1(84) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 2(54) X(54) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 2(33) X(33) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 3(52) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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