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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-27 23:11:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:15 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 the center of Erick was located near 11.6, -125.3 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Update Statement
2019-07-27 23:11:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 215 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ61 KNHC 272110 TCUEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 215 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite ocean surface wind data indicate that Tropical Depression Six-E has become Tropical Storm Erick with winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 20 miles (30 km) to the east of the center. SUMMARY OF 215 PM PDT...2115 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 125.3W ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 2055 MI...3305 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2019-07-27 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 20:33:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 21:24:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-07-27 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272031 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this morning. GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of convection and some convective banding. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the next advisory. A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border, with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt. The ridging is not expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward speed. The track models are tightly clustered, although most of them lie south of the previous official forecast. The new forecast has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days, with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation. The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday. If the circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Taylor
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-07-27 22:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 272030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/TAYLOR
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