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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-28 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of 35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation, which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in an update just after the previous official advisory was issued. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this advisory. The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. This ridging is forecast to persist to the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in the forecast period. This will result in a motion just north of west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days. Model guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick. The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is that the system lacks a well-defined inner core. How fast this inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of intensification of Erick in the short term. Based on expectation that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in the intensity guidance. It should be noted that some of the more reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify more than indicated in this favorable environment. By about 96 hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5. And, at this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain into the storm's circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-07-28 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 67(72) 1(73) X(73) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 46(57) 1(58) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-28 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Jul 27 the center of Erick was located near 11.9, -126.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 3
2019-07-28 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 280232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 ...ERICK HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 126.8W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1955 MI...3145 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 126.8 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Eric is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-07-28 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
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