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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-07-29 16:57:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery. Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does not depart from the previous one. Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-29 16:57:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME SOON... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 29 the center of Erick was located near 12.3, -136.9 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 9
2019-07-29 16:57:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291456 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 ...ERICK SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 136.9W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 136.9 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest and a slower forward speed is expected to start on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is expected to become a hurricane any time soon and then potentially a major hurricane on Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by later in the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-07-29 16:57:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291456 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 2 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 54(56) 36(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 53(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 70(74) 4(78) X(78) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 3(43) X(43) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) 1(49) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-07-29 16:56:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 291456 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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