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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-07-29 10:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290840 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 134.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-29 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290251 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 There have been some significant changes with Erick during the past several hours. First, as foreshadowed in the previous advisory, microwave and scatterometer data indicate that the center has re-formed under a very strong convective cluster farther to the south. Second, the overall cloud pattern has become much better organized, with a CDO-like feature forming near the center and a notable increase in curved banding in the southern and western quadrants of the storm. Erick appears to be in the beginning stages of rapid intensification, and the intensity will be increased to 55 kt for this advisory based on a consensus of estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS ADT. This is one of these rare forecasts where it is difficult to find a reason not to predict rapid intensification. Erick is expected to be in an environment of very low vertical wind shear and warm water during the next 48 hours. While earlier forecasts were concerned about mid-level dry air, the southward reformation will probably help insulate the storm from that influence, along with the very low shear limiting mixing. Although there is no low-level ring present yet in the latest 37 gHz microwave channel, this signal can be both before and/or concurrent with rapid strengthening. Notably, the SHIPS-rapid intensification index is showing about a 70 percent chance of both a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours and a 55-kt rise in 48 hours. It's pretty hard to ignore the signal from that model, considering these are values you might see a few times a year. In addition, dynamical models have also come up sharply from the previous cycle, and three typically reliable models now show Erick becoming a major hurricane. Thus, the new NHC intensity forecast is considerably higher than the previous one through 48 hours, at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, and just a little above the corrected-consensus models. The forecast after that time required little adjustment, as a combination of higher shear and dry air aloft should contribute to steady weakening by the end of the forecast period. After accounting for the center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days as a ridge weakens to the north, then a turn back to the west is anticipated due to Erick weakening and the ridge slightly strengthening. Model guidance remains in very good agreement this evening, with no significant outlier solutions. While the new track forecast has been shifted southwest of the previous one, it is mostly due to the center re-formation, and the forecast continues to be close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 11.7N 133.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2019-07-29 04:49:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 02:49:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 03:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-07-29 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 073 FOPZ11 KNHC 290248 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 49(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 37(64) 1(65) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 1(31) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 5(32) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-29 04:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Jul 28 the center of Erick was located near 11.7, -133.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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