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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-28 22:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Jul 28 the center of Erick was located near 12.0, -131.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 6
2019-07-28 22:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282046 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 ...ERICK GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 131.3W ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 131.3 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-07-28 22:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 130.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.5N 139.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 142.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 146.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 150.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 155.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 131.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2019-07-28 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Jul 2019 14:41:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Jul 2019 15:24:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-28 16:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 The convective cloud pattern has changed little overall since the previous advisory, with the main cloud mass displaced into the southern semicircle due to some northerly mid-level shear. A late-arriving 0615Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass along with passive microwave imagery indicate that the low-level center is positioned near the northern edge of the central convective cloud mass. However, the upper-level outflow has continued to improve and expand in all quadrants. The scatterometer pass showed only a few 33-kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity remains at 35 kt, which is in agreement with 35-kt Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 275/15 kt. A slight westward jog has occurred during the past 6 hours, likely due to the southward shift in the convective cloud mass. However, resumption of the earlier base motion of 280 degrees is expected later today when the shear decreases and the convective cloud pattern becomes more symmetrical. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track rationale. A narrow but well-defined low to mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models to build westward across the Hawaiian Islands through the entire forecast period, which is expected to keep Erick moving generally westward to slightly west-northwestward. On the forecast track, Erick is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin on Tuesday, and the new NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on this track scenario. The new official forecast track is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models HCCA and TVCE. Convective banding has started to increase during the past few hours, along with the development of a small CDO feature. The aforementioned ASCAT-C pass revealed that Erick has a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 20 nmi. The small RMW, low vertical wind shear of about 5 kt, and SSTs near 28C support at least steady strengthening at a typical climatological rate of 20 kt per 24 hours for the next 2-3 days. As a result, Erick is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours. Although rapid intensification (RI) is a possibility due to the small RMW and low shear, a dry mid-level environment is expected to hinder RI through 72 hours when stronger vertical wind shear is forecast to affect the cyclone and disrupt the intensification process. Thereafter, steady weakening due to westerly wind shear increasing to more than 20 kt is expected, resulting in Erick becoming a tropical storm by 120 hours. It is worth mentioning that although the Navy COAMPS model is forecasting Erick to become a category-4 hurricane by 72 hours, this scenario has been disregarded at this time due to the abundance of dry mid-level surrounding cyclone. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and closely follows the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 12.3N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.1N 154.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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