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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)

2019-07-28 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Jul 28 the center of Erick was located near 12.3, -129.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 5

2019-07-28 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 ...ERICK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 129.8W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 129.8 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday with continued strengthening through Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2019-07-28 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X 14(14) 9(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 63(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 65(67) 10(77) X(77) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 10(42) X(42) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 9(39) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 5

2019-07-28 16:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281438 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 154.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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