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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-07-28 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280833 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 Erick's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization over the past several hours, although there is slight evidence of increased convective banding over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, so the advisory intensity is held at 35 kt for now. An upper-level anticyclone is established over the storm, and water temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification. Apparently, Erick has not yet acquired a well-defined inner core but that is expected to occur rather soon. Therefore, steady strengthening is likely to begin within the next 12 hours. Some of the dynamical intensity models along with the simple and corrected consensus aids show the system becoming a hurricane within 36 hours, so the official forecast has been increased from the earlier NHC predictions and is near or below the consensus through 72 hours. By days 4 to 5, increased shear and some drier air is likely to cause weakening. The motion continues to be only slightly north of due west, or 280/14 kt. The steering scenario is fairly straightforward. A fairly well-defined mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models to remain established to the north of Erick throughout most of the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period, this ridge is likely to weaken, and this could cause a more northward motion to develop. By that time however, the weakening cyclone should be steered more by the low-level easterly flow which should keep the motion on a generally westward or just north of westward heading. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 12.1N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-07-28 10:32:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280831 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 48(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 29(66) X(66) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) 1(33) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)

2019-07-28 10:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Jul 27 the center of Erick was located near 12.1, -128.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-07-28 10:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280830 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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