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Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2019-07-29 10:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 08:43:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Jul 2019 09:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-29 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80 deg C. There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. An eye is not yet evident in the imagery, however. Erick's current intensity estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady strengthening. Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation. Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt. A mid-level ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward track. The track models suggest a slight bend toward the west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward excursions. The new official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run shows a track that is even a little farther to the south. The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than previously estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-07-29 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 290841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019 0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 60(64) 19(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 24(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 24(72) 1(73) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) X(38) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 3(39) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 15(36) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-29 10:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Jul 28 the center of Erick was located near 11.7, -134.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 8
2019-07-29 10:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 ...ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 134.5W ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 134.5 West. Erick is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the west-northwest and a slower forward speed is expected to start on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with Erick likely becoming a hurricane on Monday, and potentially a major hurricane on Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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