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Summary for Tropical Depression ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-09 04:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 the center of ERICK was located near 23.2, -111.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression ERICK Public Advisory Number 19

2013-07-09 04:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090255 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 111.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK COULD STILL BE AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 19

2013-07-09 04:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090255 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 111.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 111.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 19

2013-07-09 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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