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22/07/2015 to 22/07/2015 - Ask WIFM: Panel Discussion - Challenges facing the sector
2015-06-21 11:06:19| BIFM Events
The world of FM and Real Estate is growing at such a pace - But are we set up to deal with the complexities that come with it?
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Post-Tropical Cyclone CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-06-17 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172033 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an open trough by Thursday. The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for dissipation within the next 24 hours. The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24 hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where dissipation of the system is expected. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-06-17 16:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 After a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning, first-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the convection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU overpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but well-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its proximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity estimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around 40 kt, which was used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. Carlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of Mexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge and steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur sooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this morning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to happen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF models, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-06-17 10:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 The satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate as the surface circulation separates further from the remaining less organized and shrinking deep convection. Moderate northerly shear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud pattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the contributing factor in the sudden weakening trend. Small, compact, tropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as quickly as they can rapidly intensify. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given that the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small tropical cyclones. The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening through the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the 24 hour period. The current forecast philosophy is that Carlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of its expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of California. Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should occur in 48 hours or less. The initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt. The primary steering mechanism through the forecast period is the south-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the east-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of California. The official forecast, which is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based primarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS, and the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression BILL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-06-17 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 While radar data show that Bill is maintaining a good convective banding structure, surface observations indicate that the cyclone has weakened to a tropical depression over central Texas. The initial intensity is 30 kt, with these winds occurring in rainbands near and east of the center. The large-scale models suggest that only slow weakening will occur during the next 24-36 hours, and Bill is likely to remain a tropical cyclone until the center moves into eastern Oklahoma on Thursday. After that, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low, with the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States in about 96 hours. The initial motion is 360/11. Bill is expected to moved northward for the next 12-24 hours on the west side of the subtropical ridge. Subsequently, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the westerlies. The track model guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track lies close to the model consensus. The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on the flood threat. This is the last advisory on Bill issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 31.0N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 32.6N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 34.3N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z 36.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 38.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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