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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-14 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Deep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage overnight, however, the overall organization of the system has not changed appreciably. A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in locating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next day or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it moves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over cooler waters. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow weakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores' large circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly stationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-14 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 140233 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 1100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 Claudette has not changed much in strength this evening. The cloud pattern remains asymmetric with all of the deep convection confined to the northeast part of the circulation due to about 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Continued strong shear combined with much colder water along the expected track should cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics in 24 hours or less. The global models show the post-tropical low dissipating on Wednesday. Satellite fixes indicate that the center of the storm is located to the southeast of the previous track. The latest initial motion estimate is east-northeastward at 17 kt. A turn to the northeast or north-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and that general motion should continue until the storm dissipates. The official track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one and is in best agreement with the GFS model. The intensity and wind radii forecasts are based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 38.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 40.6N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 43.2N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 15/1200Z 46.3N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-07-14 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140231 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 After the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity trend has, at least temporarily, leveled off. The cloud pattern has not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers have not increased, over the past several hours. Thus the current intensity estimate is held at 65 kt. The dynamical guidance calls for decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a very warm ocean during the next 48 hours. So, although Dolores has not been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high likelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next couple of days. The official wind speed forecast, like the previous one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane by Wednesday. This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction. Dolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the left of its earlier heading. Satellite fixes yield a motion estimate of 285/05 kt. The slow forward speed should continue as Dolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge to its north. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of the dynamical track guidance suite. This is closest to the latest ECMWF prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-13 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132048 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly fragmented. Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt. A partial pass by the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center. It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about four days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from the previous NHC forecast. Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today. It is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has begun this turn toward the west-northwest. After moving toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-07-13 22:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 132034 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 500 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015 Claudette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the southwest of the main mass of deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt, well above the Dvorak estimates, based on the earlier scatterometer data. The numerical guidance indicates that the cyclone will be affected by vertical shear of greater than 30 kt over the next day or so, and this should prevent significant strengthening. Weakening should commence tomorrow, and the system will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 36 hours or sooner. Both the ECMWF and GFS global models show the cyclone losing its identity in 48 hours, so the official forecast shows dissipation at that time. Claudette is beginning to accelerate and the motion estimate is now 045/15. An additional increase in forward speed is expected as the storm moves in the flow ahead of a mid-level trough near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is in best agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 38.1N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 39.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 42.6N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 45.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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