Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-07-12 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121453 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 There has been no appreciable change to the organization of Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours. Satellite data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 1200 UTC. A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used to keep the intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or 305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed by 48 hours. Global models are in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula. After 72 hours, the model solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model consensus minus the GFDL solution. Dolores seems poised to strengthen. Atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70 percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However, the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not enough to impede intensification. Beyond 96 hours, water temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air, which should promote weakening. The intensity at the end of the forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores gains by that time. Like previous forecasts, the current one is near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS model guidance. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind field. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-07-12 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120234 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized. A broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle, with the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and 25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions except the southeast. The initial motion is 300/8. The consensus of the track guidance is that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so, steered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The guidance becomes divergent after that time due to the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific and the western United States. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between the cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression to turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to prevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward motion. The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in showing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the previous track. The depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next several days. The vertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is favorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as shown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. However, the cyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect the cyclone around 48 hours. These factors could slow or stop any rapid intensification. Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger than that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model forecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours. The intensity forecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as the previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for 72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-07-11 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually organizing. Visible satellite images show banding features increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. It should be noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind event. The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear and high moisture. The GFS and ECMWF models show the system substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours. Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is 300/9. A continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the next couple of days while the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-07-08 04:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080244 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015 Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved bands of convection have developed around the center of the well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours. The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96 hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin down and dissipate. The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Comprehensive Plan Update Early Implementation discussion drafts coming this summer and fall

2015-07-07 01:32:54| PortlandOnline

Projects address employment land, institutional campuses and mixed use zones; includes consolidated zoning map

Tags: plan discussion early update

 

Sites : [1011] [1012] [1013] [1014] [1015] [1016] [1017] [1018] [1019] [1020] [1021] [1022] [1023] [1024] [1025] [1026] [1027] [1028] [1029] [1030] next »