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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-14 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 While Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern became a little better organized. It now consists of a small central dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band. The upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the western semicircle. A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are at least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt. In about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast to increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should become a remnant low in 3 days or sooner. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. Global models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents will collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation. This NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-14 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141453 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores has continued to become better organized during the past several hours. Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye has formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of eye development as well. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU intensity estimates. After its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After 96 hours, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little left of the center of the envelope at 120 hours. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with the biggest question being how strong will it get. The official intensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current intensity forecast could be conservative. Regardless of the actual peak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend after 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-14 16:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 141451 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Claudette's cloud pattern is rapidly becoming less organized. Deep convection continues to burst northeast of the low-level center, with the latter becoming increasingly exposed and diffuse this morning. The cyclone's current structure is symptomatic of deep layer of southwesterly shear of over 30 kt, as diagnosed by SHIPS model analyses. Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, at the higher end of these estimates due to the storm's increasing forward speed. Claudette has already passed the northern wall of the Gulf Stream and will be moving over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C soon. Cooler waters, a much more stable and drier atmosphere, and continued strong southwesterly shear should contribute to Claudette's weakening. Global models suggest that extratropical transition should occur in about 24 hours, with the system opening up into a trough shortly after that. The official intensity forecast is in excellent agreement with the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 050/18. Prior to dissipation tomorrow, Claudette's track should turn north-northeastward with some additional acceleration while it rotates around large deep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 41.4N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 43.6N 59.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 46.7N 56.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-07-14 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 140839 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Claudette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located to the south of a new burst of deep convection that has developed overnight. Satellite intensity estimates suggest that the tropical cyclone has weakened slightly, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. Claudette will be crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much colder waters this morning. The unfavorable SSTs and strong southwesterly shear should cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate as it approaches or moves over Newfoundland on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is 050/17 kt. The cyclone is expected to move between northeast and north-northeast within deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 40.1N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 41.9N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 45.0N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 15/1800Z 48.0N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-14 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140838 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 The satellite presentation overnight shows an improved cloud pattern with a well-developed symmetric Central Dense Overcast and cloud tops of -80 degrees C. Microwave overpasses also indicate developing spiral bands over the western portion of the cyclone. Objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates along with an earlier AMSU-B estimate support increasing the initial intensity to 70 kt. There is some northerly shear that appears to be impinging on the northwestern quadrant of the system but, guidance indicates that the shear will relax within the next 12-24 hours and the upper flow pattern over the southern half of the system is quite diffluent. The intensity forecast continues to reflect strengthening to a major hurricane in 36-48 hours as indicated by the SHIPS model and the GFS, which has been exhibiting some intensity skill this season. Afterward, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over cooler water and into the southern extent of a southward propagating stable air mass. A series of microwave overpasses suggest that Dolores is moving slightly to the left of track or, westward at 280/5 kt within the weak peripheral flow of a ridge stretching over Texas and northern Mexico. Dynamical guidance indicates that this current motion is temporary, however, and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and should continue during the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, the global models show the ridge strengthening and building westward into Baja California. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause Dolores to gradually increase in forward speed while continuing on a west-northwest heading through 96 hours. At the end of the period, the forecast indicates a turn toward the northwest which is based on the GFEX, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast to correspond with the GFEX and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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