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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-07-16 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 The convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with the remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north of the center. A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes showed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical storm for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear. Enrique is forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so. The initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward motion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering currents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down. Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-07-16 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a major hurricane. Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed some during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering the initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over warm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for about another 24 hours. Therefore, little change in strength is forecast during that time. Afterwards Dolores is expected to move over cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of the previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit. Smoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate of 300/05 kt. The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the steering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to turn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a little to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-15 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the upper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep convection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The latest Dvorak estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique is already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is forecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus, dissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so. Enrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to collapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its remnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation occurs in 4 or 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-07-15 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's eye since this morning. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt. Dolores is moving over very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island. Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before reaching colder water. Gradual weakening is now forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the forecast period. This forecast is very close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not restrengthened. Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt. A ridge is expected to build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days, which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours. After that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-15 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little less organized than yesterday while microwave data show that Enrique's circulation continues to be tilted. The low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the weakening deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies are lower than earlier, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 40 kt. The circulation is already moving over 25 degree Celsius waters. Most of the guidance shows weakening and then dissipation in about 48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. Enrique has been moving on a steady west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 7 kt steered by the flow to the south of a narrow subtropical ridge. As Enrique weakens further and the steering flow collapses, the cyclone should begin to drift westward or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast and track guidance are in good agreement primarily during the next to 36 to 48 hours while Enrique is still expected to be a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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