je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-07-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming of the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since the last advisory. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt based on the CI numbers. Low vertical wind shear and very warm ocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4 hurricane during this period. Weakening is expected after 24 hours, predominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN consensus thereafter. As will be discussed below, Dolores's forecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the cyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed weakening. Dolores's eye wobbled westward recently, but a longer-term motion is 290/5 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico should propel Dolores west-northwestward or even westward during the next 72 hours. After that time, there are some model differences regarding the strength of the ridge and whether Dolores will turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. At the extremes, the GFS maintains a strong ridge and keeps Dolores to the south, while the ECMWF weakens the ridge off the California coast and allows Dolores to turn northward. Despite these differences, the overall guidance envelope has continued to shift southward, and the updated NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.4N 110.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-07-15 10:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional satellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold cloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the eyewall. The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly over the northwestern and southeastern quadrants. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB. Dolores should peak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a maximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the SHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down through the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression by day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt. Dolores continues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The large-scale models are in agreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48 and 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster west-northwestward forward motion. Afterward, Dolores is forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the coast of California. The NHC forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast beyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and TVCE consensus models. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-15 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Microwave images during the evening indicate that Enrique's circulation is tilted with the low-level center located near the southern portion of the main convective mass. This is due to moderate south-southwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model and a UW/CIMSS shear analysis. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The moderate southerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual weakening during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/8 kt. The storm should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge during the next day or two. After 48 hours, the large circulation of Hurricane Dolores is expected to cause the steering currents to weaken over the far eastern Pacific. This should result in a reduction in Enrique's forward speed, and a southward drift later in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, and has been adjusted a little westward thereafter, to be in better agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.8N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.3N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.9N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 19.3N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone CLAUDETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-07-15 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 150233 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032015 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015 Claudette has lacked organized deep convection for nearly 10 hours now, and it only consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The cyclone is currently over SSTs near 17 C, so it is highly unlikely that significant thunderstorm activity will return. Therefore, Claudette is considered a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system issued by the National Hurricane Center. The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly northeastward at about 18 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates on Wednesday. The current wind speed is estimated to be 40 kt based on recent ASCAT data. Environment Canada's buoy 44141 has been helpful in locating the center and estimating the minimum pressure. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 43.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1200Z 46.0N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-14 22:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142047 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible imagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than -80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. While the hurricane has good cirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery suggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern semicircle, possibly to near the eyewall. The initial motion is now 295/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After that time, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. There is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour period, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus models showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF. This part of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether rapid intensification will occur. The new intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it is possible this part of the forecast is conservative. After 36-48 hours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [1006] [1007] [1008] [1009] [1010] [1011] [1012] [1013] [1014] [1015] [1016] [1017] [1018] [1019] [1020] [1021] [1022] [1023] [1024] [1025] next »