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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-09-12 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121433 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level outflow has improved. Most of the global models as well as SHIPS suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days. In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity consensus model ICON. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to 4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06 to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by global models to help with the initialization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-09-12 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 A 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression is still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep convection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to gradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification. Thee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to a remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However, both of these could occur sooner than indicated. The depression has been drifting northward during the past few hours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward motion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes under the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of motion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the track guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than the previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-09-12 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120841 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection. The current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept at 35 kt. While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry conditions just to the southwest of Edouard. The official intensity forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the prediction from the previous advisory. Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites assisted substantially in determining the initial position and current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than estimated earlier. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.6N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 9

2014-09-12 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120840 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so, which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72 hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at 36 hours and beyond. Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall, the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario, but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in the southern semicircle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Genesco Inc - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis of...

2014-09-12 05:47:52| Footwear - Topix.net

Forward Looking Statements This discussion and the Notes to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements include certain forward-looking statements, including those regarding the performance outlook for the Company and its individual businesses and all other statements not addressing solely historical facts or present conditions. Words such as "may," "will," "should," "likely," "anticipate," "expect," "intend," "plan," "project," "believe," "estimate" and similar expressions can be used to identify these forward-looking statements.

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