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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-13 04:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 While the center of Odile is still outside of the main convective area, the cyclone has recently developed a strong curved convective band over the eastern semicircle. This suggests that the vertical wind shear is decreasing. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 65 kt, and there has been little change in these estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. The cirrus outflow is improving and is now good to excellent in all directions except the north. Odile has started a slow northwestward motion of 315/3 during the past several hours. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula soon, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward for the next several days. The guidance shows a little more spread than before, and it is also showing a somewhat faster forward speed after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the right based on the current position and motion, and is a little faster than the previous forecast after 72 hours. The new track forecast is in the center of the track guidance envelope. The large-scale models suggest that Odile should be in a light shear environment for the next 48 hours while the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C. This should allow steady strengthening. Despite this, most of the intensity guidance shows less intensification than it did during the previous cycle. The intensity forecast still calls for a peak of 90 kt in 48 hours, but shows a slower development rate than before. After the peak, Odile should weaken when it encounters cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 20.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-12 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 122036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured a minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard. This leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another sonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data, and this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some disruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite images indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this time. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow is expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual strengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear, and the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11 kt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of the subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force the cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated. There is high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since the dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.5N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 21.8N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 23.2N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 37.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-12 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the northerly shear has shifted westward in tandem with the upper-level low over central Mexico, and is impeding the entire western portion of Odile. TAFB and SAB current intensity estimates are 45 and 65 kt respectively, and the objective ADT intensity estimate is 57 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt. The upper-level low over central Mexico is weakening and slowly lifting northwestward which should allow the cyclone to be in a more conducive environment with a more diffluent pattern aloft and decreased shear. Therefore, strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, Odile will be traversing cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. The intensity forecast is an update of this morning's advisory and is near the SHIPS statistical/dynamical model. Odile has temporarily halted, but the 12-hour averaged motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next several days, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward through day 5. The dynamical guidance remains relatively unchanged on this forecast synoptic pattern, and the new official forecast is basically an update of the previous package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 22.4N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hooker Furniture Corp - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis...
2014-09-12 22:33:03| Furniture - Topix.net
This quarterly report on Form 10-Q includes our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the thirteen-week period that began , and the twenty-six week period that began . This report discusses our results of operations for these periods compared to the fiscal year 2014 thirteen-week period that began .
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-12 16:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 CORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH. The center of the tropical cyclone is very difficult to find on geostationary images, but an SSMI image from 1056 UTC indicated that it continued to be located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection. However, first-light visible pictures suggest that the low-level circulation is poorly defined. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although this may be generous. The unfavorable influence of the much larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, centered about 800 n mi to the east of the depression, should prevent significant strengthening. As in our previous forecast reasoning, it is expected that the depression will dissipate in a few days, if not sooner, by being absorbed by Odile. This is similar to the previous NHC forecast. Given the difficulty in fixing the center, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 360/2 kt. An eastward motion is likely to commence within a day or so while the tropical cyclone begins to become entrained into Odile's circulation. Some increase in forward speed is likely in a couple of days as Odile exerts an increasing influence on the steering of the depression. The latest official forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks, with the former showing a more eastward motion and the latter significantly slower. This is somewhat slower than the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.2N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.0N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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