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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-10-07 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS BEEN GETTING MORE ORGANIZED. A LONG CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND CONNECTS TO AN INNER RING OF CONVECTION THAT IS OPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...AS WELL AS ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NARDA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. OCEAN WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM AT AROUND 28C...AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH LIE AT THE UPPER RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST...CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING ADVECTED MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NOAA FIM MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.2N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-10-07 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. NARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM STALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-10-06 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERSISTENT AND BETTER ORGANIZED IN A BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SO STRONG BY DAYS 4-5 THAT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN RESULTING IN DISSIPATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BUT IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEWLY FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. IN RESPONSE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER WEAKENING. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT GIVES THE ECMWF MODEL MORE WEIGHT ON DAYS 4-5. THIS TREND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DRASTICALLY AND BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.9N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 13.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.9N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Remnants of KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-10-06 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061432 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT IN A DAY OR SO. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 28.1N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-06 10:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060831 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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