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Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 35
2013-09-19 04:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190254 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 HUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H. THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF HUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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depression
Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-19 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190253 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182047 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER... MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY. BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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storm
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 34
2013-09-18 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182038 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO... MAINLY IN SKELETAL BANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER VAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THIS MAY BE SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. RECENT OSCAT DATA SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS ABOUT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS ARE 37 KT AND 32 KT RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 35 KT. HUMBERTO HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/5. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH A FRONTAL ZONE IN 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHETHER HUMBERTO WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...OR WHETHER IT WILL DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 34.9N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 37.4N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 54.0N 23.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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tropical
Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-18 19:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181744 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE INNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND. SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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discussion
manuel
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