je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-15 04:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150238 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013 ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT THE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A MOIST AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION... THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE OTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Book Discussion on [For God, Country, and Coca-Cola]
2013-08-12 07:34:48| Beverages - Topix.net
Mark Pendergrast talked about his book, For God, Country, and Coca-Cola: The Definitive History of the Great American Soft Drink and the Company That Makes It , in which he presents a history of Coca-Cola.The author ..
Tags: book
country
discussion
god
Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2013-08-09 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A FASTER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 3 AND 4 THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE LATEST TCVE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PASSES FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B AT 1832Z AND 1926Z...RESPECTIVELY... INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS QUITE SMALL. BASED ON THESE DATA THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT HENRIETTE HAS CROSSED 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA33 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.0N 144.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.0N 149.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 13.5N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-08-08 22:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 082037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15 HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE 09/0600 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-08-08 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081432 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. ENHANCE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEG C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL PREDICTION AND NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. CENTER FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD OR 280 AT 9 KT. A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 17.3N 139.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.0N 141.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.5N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 14.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [1231] [1232] [1233] [1234] [1235] [1236] [1237] [1238] [1239] [1240] [1241] [1242] [1243] [1244] [1245] [1246] [1247] [1248] [1249] [1250] next »