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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 20

2013-08-08 10:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080843 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013 AN EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF HENRIETTE IS SHRINKING. THE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO SHRUNK BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.2 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO THE WINDS ARE BEING HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING APPEARS IMMINENT NOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING OVER WATER THAT IS COLDER THAN 26C AND IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AND IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5 WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. HENRIETTE IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFT AND HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8 KT. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TURN THE HURRICANE WESTWARD WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THEN...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 17.2N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 17.4N 138.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.8N 142.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 150.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 14.0N 157.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 19

2013-08-08 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE AN EYE IS NOT SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A 2134Z AMSR-2 PASS FROM THE GCOM-W1 SATELLITE SHOWED A SMALL MID- LEVEL EYE. HOWEVER...THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED AN EASTWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...BUT IN A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HENRIETTE WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.0N 136.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.4N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.4N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.2N 141.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.7N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 13.0N 162.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-08-07 22:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072031 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AN EYE IS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHILE AN APPARENT DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING BETWEEN THE CDO AND THE OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A 70 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS A FEW HOURS AGO. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GFS...THE UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECASTING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND...BUT WITH A SLOWER WEAKENING RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.7N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 17.7N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.6N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.5N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17

2013-08-07 16:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071434 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH MORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE WESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-08-07 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070836 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013 HENRIETTE IS NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 6-12 HOURS AGO. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SOME...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T4.4 FROM THE ADT. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 75 KT. THE RECENT WEAKENING COULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR 24 HOURS OR SO. MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INGESTS MORE STABLE AIR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING RATE MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS. HENRIETTE IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT AS IT HEADS TOWARD A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD ALSO BECOME STEERED BY LOWER- LEVEL RIDGING AS IT WEAKENS. THEREFORE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. A NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER AMONG THE TRACK MODELS IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.6N 133.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.3N 135.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.0N 137.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 17.3N 139.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 17.1N 141.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 14.5N 156.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG

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