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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-08-07 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070235 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 WHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-08-06 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062032 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SMALL HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A SMALL EYE BECOMING EVIDENT. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAVE CLEARLY SHOWN A CONTRACTING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 85 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS... THEN LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THERAFTER. HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT ABOUT 9 KT TODAY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC TRACK DURING THIS TIME SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THOSE TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.7N 132.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.5N 133.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.4N 135.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 17.3N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 16.8N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.0N 147.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 15.5N 152.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-08-06 16:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED EYE...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY IN NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 82 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 305/9 KT. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 135W AND 140W LONGITUDE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH WILL CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE SPREAD BECOMES LARGER WITH THE MODELS THAT WEAKEN HENRIETTE SOONER SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 132.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.9N 136.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.3N 138.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.3N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 16.8N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane HENRIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-08-06 10:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060840 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013 AFTER A BRIEF CONVECTIVE RESPITE...A PRONOUNCED CDO FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. VARIOUS MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED EYE HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS EVEN BRIEFLY EVIDENT IN NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND 0500 UTC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.4/75 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT... AND T4.0.65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...HENRIETTE IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES HENRIETTE HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE....AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 136-137W LONGITUDE. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCING THE WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4/5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE MUCH ABOVE 75 KT...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THESE LOWER INTENSITY VALUES MAY BE THE RESULT OF THOSE MODELS USING SST VALUES THAT ARE ABOUT 0.5C LOWER THAN WHAT IS NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT SST ANALYSES. GIVEN THE 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE NOTED IN A RECENT 0555Z AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS... GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER OR NEAR SUB-26C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING MIGHT NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY OR AS MUCH AS FORECAST DUE TO THE VERY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.8N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.7N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.8N 133.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.7N 135.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.3N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 17.8N 141.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 17.0N 145.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 16.8N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression GIL Forecast Discussion Number 27

2013-08-06 04:32:12| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013

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