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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-08-18 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182032 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT REGENERATION. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-08-18 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181433 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED... PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...OR SOONER. ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-08-18 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A FEW DAYS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-08-18 04:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180241 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS. ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-08-17 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172031 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS. ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 21.5N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 23.0N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.0N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 26.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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