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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-09-19 16:57:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191456 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion jerry forecast

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-09-19 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory. Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today. The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion mario storm

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 28

2019-09-19 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191450 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Deep convection is most organized to the north and west of the partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that Humberto will become fully extratropical later today. Despite the fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the mid- to upper-level low. After that, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The cyclone should be absorbed by another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-09-19 16:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates. Although the inner core has likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable. Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone. Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. 3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued, and residents should heed the advice of local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 29

2019-09-19 16:48:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center. The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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