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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-10-08 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 082036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 17(38) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-10-08 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 082035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 65.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 65.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 65.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.9N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-10-08 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081438 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern has further deteriorated this morning. The low-level center has been exposed, with generally only shallow convection on the southern and eastern periphery of the cyclone's circulation. A new burst of deeper convection has developed southeast of the center in the last couple of hours, however. Dvorak Final-T numbers continue to decrease, and a blend of those data and CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt. Nicole is moving just west of due south or 190/06. A blocking high north of the cyclone should continue to push it southward for about 24 hours. Nicole should then reverse its heading and turn north- northwestward, when the mid-level high shifts to its northeast. A potential complication to the track forecast is the degree to which Nicole interacts with Matthew or its remnants, beginning in 2 to 3 days through the latter part of the forecast period. The ECMWF shows a stronger binary interaction and draws Nicole much farther west than the GFS after 72 hours, and the differences in the models by 96 hours become extreme. The track forecast philosophy continues to closely follow a blend of the ECMWF and GFS model solutions, though slightly more weight has been placed on the GFS-based guidance since a sizable number of ECMWF ensemble members are east of its deterministic run. Admittedly, the forecast on days 4 and 5 are of low confidence. The shear is forecast to be so strong in the short term that one might be tempted to call for Nicole to degenerate to a remnant low, especially given its current satellite appearance. However, the shear is forecast to nominally decrease, when the tail of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic fractures and becomes co-located with the tropical cyclone during the next day or so. How the merger of the two affects Nicole's intensity and structure remains unclear. Nonetheless, the large-scale conditions are shown to become less hostile in 2 to 4 days, and it seems plausible that some re-intensification of the cyclone could occur before becoming less favorable again by day 5. The new intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and below the multi-model consensus, and continues to show a modest recovery after 72 hours. The intensity forecast continues to be of low confidence in the long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.2N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.2N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 28.3N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 33.4N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-08 16:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 14:39:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 14:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2016-10-08 16:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 081438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 65.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 65.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 65.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.3N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.4N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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