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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 17

2016-10-08 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 080839 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NICOLE WEAKENING WHILE BEING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 65.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow southward motion is expected to continue today and tonight, but Nicole is then forecast to stall or meander Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2016-10-08 10:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 080839 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 17

2016-10-08 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 080838 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.6W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.6W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.2N 65.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 65.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 16

2016-10-08 04:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080251 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 Strong northerly shear continues to cause all of Nicole's deep convection to be located in the southern semicircle of the storm. The deep convection has been going up and down, very typical for this type of sheared tropical cyclone. ASCAT showed a sizable area of winds near 45 kt, and after considering the low bias of the instrument for a small tropical cyclone, the initial wind speed is reduced to 50 kt. This is also consistent with a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Nicole is moving southward at about 6 kt. A motion toward the south or south-southeast is anticipated for the next day or so while the tropical cyclone is steered on the east side of a mid-level high between Nicole and Matthew. The forecast gets very tricky in a couple of days, with the mid-level high breaking down and Matthew probably moving toward Nicole. The possibility of tropical cyclone binary interaction appears to be increasing, which could cause Nicole to move toward the north or north-northwest in the 3 to 5 day period. The details of this interaction, however, are very sketchy, with models presenting a variety of fairly divergent solutions. The new NHC forecast is close to the ensemble means of the UKMET, ECMWF and GFS, which ends up south of the previous forecast at short range, and to the east of the previous forecast at long range. These are relatively small changes since it is probably best not to move the forecast very much until the models come into better agreement on the final phase of Matthew. Northerly shear is forecast to continue near Nicole over the next two or three days. Models do not show as much weakening as one might think, perhaps due to the very warm water that Nicole will be traversing, or due to Nicole's possible interaction with a shortwave trough. After that time, global models generally show a decrease in shear and a diffluent upper-level pattern, which would support some restrengthening. The model guidance is slightly higher than the last cycle, and the latest NHC prediction is nudged in that direction, although the new forecast is on the low side of the guidance. Needless to say, this is a fairly uncertain forecast overall because Matthew could play a large role in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 26.3N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 25.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 24.8N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 27.7N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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