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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-08 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STILL WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 8 the center of NICOLE was located near 25.2, -65.7 with movement S at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 18
2016-10-08 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NICOLE STILL WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 65.7W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through early Sunday. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by late Sunday, and a faster motion in this direction is likely by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-08 10:40:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 08:40:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 08:39:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-10-08 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080839 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 Nicole's structure has changed dramatically just within the past six hours due to about 45 kt of northerly shear. The deep convection is now oriented linearly from east to west and is displaced more than 100 n mi to the south of the exposed low-level center. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers have dropped to 3.0 from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Nicole's initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt. Deep-layer northerly flow continues to push Nicole southward, and the initial motion is estimated to be 190/6 kt. The winds on the west side of a mid-level low should continue forcing Nicole generally southward for the next 24-36 hours until these two systems become collocated with one another. After 36 hours, Nicole is expected to be steered back toward the north, ahead of Hurricane Matthew's remnant mid-level circulation. There are some differences among the track models associated with exactly how the interaction between Nicole and Matthew will play out. The notable outlier is the ECMWF model, which swings Nicole northwestward and then westward around the north side of Matthew after 48 hours. In deference to this model, the new NHC track forecast is a little west and slower than the previous forecast, and it lies very close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models. The vertical shear affecting Nicole is expected to remain high for several more days, possibly not dropping below 20 kt until after 72 hours. Still, sea surface temperatures will remain between 29 and 30C, so Nicole may be able to continue producing bursts of deep convection that will prevent its intensity from decreasing much. Some restrengthening at the end of the forecast period is possible, although trends are suggesting that the shear may once again increase by day 5. Based on the latest guidance, the official intensity forecast is lowered by 5 kt for much of the forecast period. If the shear wins out, however, then Nicole's intensity could end up being lower than shown in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 25.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 25.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.7N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 30.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-08 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE WEAKENING WHILE BEING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 8 the center of NICOLE was located near 25.9, -65.6 with movement S at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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