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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 20
2016-10-09 04:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 090239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NICOLE STILL LINGERING WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 65.7W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 65.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is expected to drift southward through Sunday night, then turn northward at an increasing forward speed by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will continue to affect Bermuda for the next several days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-08 23:13:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 20:36:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Oct 2016 21:07:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-10-08 22:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082038 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 A tremendous burst of deep convection has developed this afternoon, partially covering and southeast of Nicole's low-level center. A late-morning ASCAT pass indicated 41-kt uncontaminated wind vectors east of the center, and given the recent burst of convection, the initial intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt. This is in agreement with latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 195/05. A blocking ridge north of Nicole should keep Nicole moving on this general course for another 12 hours or so, though its forward speed should begin to decrease. As the ridge shifts to the northeast of Nicole by late tomorrow, the cyclone should reverse its motion 180 degrees and begin moving north-northwestward. The global models continue to show a binary interaction between Matthew or its remnants in 2 to 3 days, but the ECMWF no longer is drawing Nicole as far west as it was previously. A turn toward the north and then northeast is expected by days 4 and 5. The track guidance has come into much better agreement and has resulted in a more confident track forecast this cycle. The new forecast track is slower than the previous one and shifted a bit to the east but not as far east as the model consensus aids. As high as the vertical shear has been over Nicole, it is puzzling that no additional weakening has taken place. At a minimum, the strong northerly shear should preclude significant intensification in the short term. A nominal decrease in the shear over the next couple of days could allow Nicole to re-intensify, perhaps more than indicated in this forecast. A more substantial reduction of the shear is forecast by 72 hours, and a re-intensification of the cyclone seems more likely than it did earlier on days 3 and 4, similar to what the global models have been showing. By the end of the forecast period, increasing shear could cause the intensity to level off. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is generally near the multi-model consensus. It continues to be of low confidence after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 24.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 30.4N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 33.9N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-08 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 8 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.8, -65.8 with movement SSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 19
2016-10-08 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NICOLE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 65.8W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 65.8 West. Nicole is moving toward the south-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by late Sunday with an increase in forward speed by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, will continue to affect Bermuda for the next several days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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