je.st
news
Tag: nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-10-08 04:50:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 080249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-08 04:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLIGHTLY WEAKER NICOLE MOVING SOUTHWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 7 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.3, -65.3 with movement S at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 16
2016-10-08 04:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 080249 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER NICOLE MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 65.3W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 65.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with some reduction in forward speed is forecast through early Sunday, and Nicole is expected to be moving very slowly by Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-10-08 04:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 080249 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 65.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 65.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 65.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.7N 65.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-10-07 22:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 072036 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 Nicole is a heavily sheared tropical cyclone. The well-defined low-level center is partially exposed on the northwest side of a bursting mass of deep convection. Dvorak Final-T numbers have continued to decrease to T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and a blend of those with CI-numbers yields an initial intensity of 55 kt. Nicole has begun to move southward, and the initial motion estimate is 185/04. A blocking high north of Nicole should continue to push the cyclone slowly southward during the next couple of days. After that time, the mid-level ridge is forecast to rebuild east of Nicole, and there is the potential for a binary interaction with weakening Matthew to the west in 2 to 3 days. This should cause Nicole to do an about-face and begin moving northwestward or north-northwestward from days 2 to 4. A turn toward the north is expected by day 5 once the binary interaction ends and Nicole is on the cusp of entering a stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Although the bulk of the model guidance is in basic agreement with this scenario, there are speed differences amongst the models that make the track forecast of lower confidence than average. Global models show no diminution of the northerly shear over Nicole for the next two days or so. A further complication is Nicole's interaction during this same time period with a fractured lobe of vorticity from a shortwave trough to the east that wraps around the circulation. The net result of all of this is that the cyclone could weaken a bit further or remain steady state as a weak tropical storm for 2 to 3 days, which is what the official forecast and SHIPS model output indicates. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease and the flow aloft is likely to become much more diffluent, both of which support some re-intensification. This is shown in the latter part of the forecast period, which likewise is in good agreement with SHIPS model output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 27.0N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 26.2N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 25.4N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 25.1N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.5N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 29.7N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 32.6N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] next »