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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-06 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas continues to intensify. Satellite images indicate that Blas has a typical appearance of a major hurricane with a distinct eye surrounded by a fairly symmetric ring of deep convection. The Dvorak CI-numbers at 0000 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and recent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little higher. Based on these estimates and the continued improvement in organization since the time of the classifications, the initial wind speed is set at 120 kt. This makes Blas a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane has slowed a little in forward speed, and the latest initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. The models are in very good agreement for the next 3 days or so in showing Blas continuing westward to west-northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. After that time, however, the model solutions diverge with the bulk of the guidance showing a northwestward motion due to the cyclone interacting with a cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF model has a notably different solution showing little involvement with the cut-off low, which results in Blas continuing westward. No significant changes were made to the previous prediction and this track forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that there is low confidence at the latter forecast points. Blas still has another 12-18 hours of favorable conditions for strengthening. Beyond that time, the cyclone is expected to move over cool water and into a progressively drier air mass. These conditions should end the strengthening phase and cause a steady weakening trend. The official NHC intensity forecast lies at the upper end the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the intensity model consensus from 36-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 18.2N 132.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 20.2N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 21.6N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-06 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS STILL STRENGTHENING... ...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 the center of BLAS was located near 14.4, -121.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 13
2016-07-06 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 ...BLAS STILL STRENGTHENING... ...NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 121.7W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.7 West. Blas is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible overnight. After that, Blas is expected to begin weakening late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-07-06 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-07-06 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060232 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 121.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 135.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 21.6N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 121.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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