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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-07 16:40:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 14:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 14:39:34 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-07 16:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071439 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is beginning to weaken. The eye has become a little less distinct this morning, and the surrounding ring of deep convection has warmed over the northwestern portion of the circulation. A blend of the various Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS yields an initial wind speed of 105 kt. Blas is currently moving over gradually decreasing SSTs, which should result in continued weakening, however, given the annular hurricane characteristics of Blas the rate of weakening is expected to be gradual today. A more rapid spin down should begin tonight or Friday when Blas moves over even cooler water and into a more stable environment. The hurricane is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day 5. Blas is moving west-northwestward or 290/9. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-/upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance has come into better agreement through this time period, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope through 72 hours. After Blas weakens and becomes a shallower system, the ECMWF takes the cyclone west-southwestward while the remainder of the guidance shows a more westward track. The NHC forecast favors the latter scenario and remains north of the ECMWF solution at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 128.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.7N 129.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.9N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 132.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-07 16:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 the center of BLAS was located near 16.2, -127.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 19
2016-07-07 16:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 071438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...BLAS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 127.1W ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 127.1 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-07-07 16:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 071438 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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