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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-07 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 072038 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 The eye of Blas has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery today, but the convective ring surrounding the center has changed little since this morning. Recent microwave imagery indicates that the southwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded somewhat. Although the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have not changed much since 1200 UTC, the objective T-numbers have decreased and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt. Blas will be moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment during the next several days. This should result in a faster rate of weakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and become post-tropical in about 72 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus. Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 290/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. In 2 to 3 days, a weaker and more shallow Blas should turn westward in the low-level easterly flow. The GFS and ECMWF continue to converge on this solution, and the updated NHC track is near a consensus of those models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.6N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.1N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.2N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.2N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 22.2N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2016-07-07 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 072035 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-07 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 7 the center of BLAS was located near 16.6, -127.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 20
2016-07-07 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 072035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 ...BLAS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 127.8W ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 127.8 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Blas is expected to weaken to a tropical storm Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 20
2016-07-07 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 072033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 128.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.2N 130.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.9N 132.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.2N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.8N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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