je.st

Home › olaf

Tag: olaf

Hurricane OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2015-10-19 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 192032 PWSEP4 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 5(31) 2(33) X(33) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 35(60) 6(66) 1(67) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 4(34) 1(35) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) X(21) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 4(25) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-19 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 the center of OLAF was located near 10.0, -138.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane olaf ep4ep192015

Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 20

2015-10-19 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 192031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 ...OLAF RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 138.7W ABOUT 1280 MI...2065 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 138.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast tonight. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 20

2015-10-19 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192031 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.3N 140.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 10.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.7N 143.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.6N 144.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.7N 146.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 147.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 138.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane