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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 19

2015-10-19 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191450 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 A small eye is now apparent in infrared imagery, and the coverage and symmetry of the cold cloud tops has improved during the past few hours. The initial intensity is set to 100 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification of T5.5/102 kt from SAB, making Olaf the 6th major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific this year. This is the farthest south that a major hurricane has formed in the basin since reliable records began in 1971. Further strengthening appears likely in the next day or so, and in fact the SHIPS RI index shows a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to account for the observed strengthening, and shows a peak of 125 kt in 24 hours. Little change in intensity is then shown through 48 hours, however, there could be fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall cycles during this time that are not represented in the forecast. Later in the period, gradual weakening should begin as Olaf moves over slightly cooler waters into a somewhat drier environment. The new NHC forecast is above the guidance in the first 24 hours and close to the latest SHIPS model prediction thereafter. Olaf continues to move westward, with an initial motion of 280/12. This continues a trend of a motion that has been a little faster and to the left of much of the guidance and the NHC forecast. While the track forecast reasoning has not changed, with Olaf expected to gradually turn northward through the forecast period as the ridge to the north erodes, the guidance envelope has continued to shift westward this cycle. In fact, the multi-model consensus has shifted westward by about 2 degrees compared to 24 hours ago at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left this cycle by 60 to 90 n mi at days 2 through 5. The NHC track is now on the left side of the guidance envelope and closer to the UKMET model, which has been the best performing track model so far for Olaf. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 9.9N 137.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 10.2N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 10.8N 140.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 11.4N 142.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 146.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.7N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Summary for Hurricane OLAF (EP4/EP192015)

2015-10-19 16:47:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OLAF NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 the center of OLAF was located near 9.9, -137.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane OLAF Public Advisory Number 19

2015-10-19 16:47:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 ...OLAF NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 137.7W ABOUT 1345 MI...2160 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 137.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight, and a west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through tonight, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Advisory Number 19

2015-10-19 16:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 191446 TCMEP4 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 137.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 137.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 137.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.2N 139.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 10.8N 140.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.4N 142.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.7N 146.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 137.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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