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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2015-09-01 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 011437 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 140.1W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 140.1W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 139.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 140.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON JIMENA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/CPHC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-09-01 11:21:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 08:51:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 09:09:16 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-09-01 10:49:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010848 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Jimena has changed little since the previous advisory. Microwave data indicate that the hurricane has concentric eyewalls, and the eye temperature has actually warmed a bit during the past few hours. Since the overall satellite presentation has changed little, and Dvorak estimates are T6.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 115 kt. Jimena has an expansive outflow shield radiating outward 400 to 600 n mi in all directions from the center, and the UW-CIMSS shear analysis is currently showing less than 5 kt of shear affecting the hurricane. The SHIPS guidance shows the shear staying 5 kt or less for the next 48 hours, and less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures gradually decrease ahead of Jimena, but they are at least 26C for the entire forecast period. Therefore, there don't seem to be any egregiously hostile conditions during the next few days to induce a quick weakening trend. As has been the case for days, the hurricane models show a gradual weakening trend through the five-day period, while the GFS and ECMWF continue to maintain a much stronger hurricane. As a compromise between these scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end of the intensity guidance, or close to the SHIPS model. This forecast is a little higher than the previous official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. Jimena is expected to turn west-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge within the next 12 hours, and then northwestward and north-northwestward by days 3 through 5. This forecast reasoning is unchanged from prior advisories, but the track guidance envelope did shift a little west after 48 hours on this cycle. The updated NHC track is therefore nudged westward as well and is close to the TVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.9N 140.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.4N 141.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.9N 142.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.3N 143.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-09-01 10:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010847 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 18(35) 23(58) 7(65) 2(67) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 4(27) 1(28) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-09-01 10:47:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 the center of JIMENA was located near 16.4, -139.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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