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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)

2015-08-31 16:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JIMENA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 31 the center of JIMENA was located near 15.6, -135.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 20

2015-08-31 16:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 311443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 ...JIMENA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 135.3W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 135.3 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, followed by slow weakening. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 20

2015-08-31 16:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311441 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 135.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 135.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 137.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 138.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 140.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 142.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.9N 143.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 143.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 135.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 19

2015-08-31 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310856 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena has maintained a symmetric very cold CDO with a well-defined 25 n mi diameter eye. A 0307Z SSMIS pass indicated that a concentric eyewall structure was in place with a secondary eyewall located about 30-40 n mi from the center. A blend of subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications along with UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique are the basis for Jimena's 130-kt intensity. Currently, Jimena is over warm 28 deg C water and is embedded in weak northerly vertical shear conditions. While these should favor continuing an extreme intensity, the mid-level moisture is somewhat dry and the atmosphere not very unstable for deep convection. During the next few days, the SSTs should gradually cool while the vertical shear should gradually increase as Jimena moves west-northwestward. Complicating the forecast is the possibility that Jimena may undergo another concentric eyewall cycle, with short-term weakening followed by possible reintensification. However, such variations are difficult to precisely predict. The intensity forecast is nearly the same as from the previous advisory and is closest to the statistical SHIPS model from 12 to 36 hours, and is close to the IVCN consensus technique thereafter. Jimena is moving quickly toward the west-northwest at 15 kt, primarily through the steering induced by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The ridge should weaken and become oriented northwest-to-southeast during the next couple of days. This should result in Jimena turning toward the northwest at a slower rate of speed. The forecast track is nearly identical to the previous advisory and is based upon the very tightly packed consensus of the skillful dynamical models. Jimena's wind radii were significantly adjusted outward based upon an 0216Z CIRA AMSU pass and an 0536Z partial ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.3N 133.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 15.7N 135.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.3N 137.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 18.5N 142.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.5N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 144.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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