je.st
news
Tag: jimena
Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 22
2015-09-01 04:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 ...JIMENA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 138.1W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 138.1 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A significant decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, with a turn toward the northwest by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Jimena is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-09-01 04:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010241 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 20(43) 8(51) 1(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2015-09-01 04:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010241 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 138.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 138.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.2N 140.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 143.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 144.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 144.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 138.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-08-31 22:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 312034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure around a 20 n mi diameter eye. The cloud tops have warmed a little during the past few hours, and the overall satellite presentation is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak Final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased slightly, and the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 125 kt. The hurricane is still moving westward at about 14 kt, which is a little faster than previously predicted. A mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Jimena west-northwestward in the short term, but this ridge is expected to weaken during the next day or two in response to an amplification of a mid- to upper- level trough extending southwestward from the western United States. This pattern change should cause the steering currents around Jimena to weaken, resulting in a gradual northwestward turn with a dramatic decrease in forward speed after 48 hours. The track model guidance has shifted a little to the left and is slightly faster than earlier, and the new NHC track forecast follows that theme. Jimena is likely to fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours while it remains embedded in a very low wind shear environment and over 28 deg C waters. After that time, a slow weakening is expected while SSTs decrease along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and remains on the high side of the intensity guidance, giving some weight to the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 136.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-31 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 the center of JIMENA was located near 15.9, -136.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
ep3ep132015
jimena
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] next »