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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-08-30 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302036 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..320NE 240SE 240SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-30 17:19:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 14:42:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 15:08:16 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-08-30 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301441 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 Infrared satellite images and a recent GCOM microwave pass indicate that there is still some evidence of a double eyewall structure. The southern portion of Jimena's inner eyewall has eroded a little during the past few hours, causing a slightly asymmetric presentation. The initial wind speed is maintained at 115 kt, based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, though it is possible that Jimena could be a little less intense. The atmospheric environment is expected to remain conducive for Jimena to remain a strong cyclone for the next several days as the SHIPS model shows the wind shear remaining less than 10 kt. The only negative environmental factor is cooler water with lower oceanic heat content along the expected track. Most of the guidance shows a slow decay of the hurricane during the next several days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Jimena is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. This general motion is expected to persist for another day or two. After that time, the hurricane is expected to decelerate in response to weakening steering currents caused by an amplifying trough extending southwestward from the western United States. The new track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to come in better agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 129.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-30 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 the center of JIMENA was located near 14.2, -129.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 16
2015-08-30 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ...JIMENA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 129.6W ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 129.6 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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