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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-08-30 16:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301436 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..290NE 240SE 240SW 290NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 129.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-30 11:20:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 08:46:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 09:08:18 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-08-30 10:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300848 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 The overall cloud pattern has degraded a little during the past few hours with some cooling of the eye of Jimena. Microwave data confirm the ongoing eyewall replacement, with some evidence that the inner eyewall is eroding at the expense of an outer eyewall. Satellite estimates have come down somewhat, so the initial intensity is reduced to 115 kt. The intensity forecast for the next day or so is primarily dependent on when and if the eyewall cycle completes. After considering the low-shear, warm-water environment, I will assume that Jimena will be able to complete the eyewall cycle and not lose much more intensity this weekend. After that time, overall environmental conditions only gradually become less conducive. These factors suggest a slow decay of the cyclone then, although there is considerable uncertainty since the intensity guidance is rather divergent by long range. There has not been any significant change to the intensity consensus and, given the uncertainties, the new forecast is kept nearly the same as the old one. The initial motion estimate is 290/11. So far Jimena has been a well-behaved cyclone as the subtropical ridge has provided a steady steering current. This ridge is forecast to remain firm for the next few days, keeping the west-northwestward motion in place. Around the time Jimena reaches the central Pacific, it should slow down considerably due to a weakening of the subtropical ridge, which could allow a turn to the northwest by the end of the period. However, the bulk of guidance keep the hurricane moving slowly west-northwestward through day 5, with some outliers. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC prediction since the model consensus is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 13.7N 128.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.3N 130.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 15.1N 132.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 15.8N 135.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 17.2N 140.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 17.9N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.5N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-30 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 the center of JIMENA was located near 13.7, -128.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 15
2015-08-30 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300846 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ...JIMENA REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 128.4W ABOUT 1365 MI...2200 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 128.4 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next day or so, but Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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