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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-08-31 04:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 Jimena's cloud pattern has been in a remarkably steady state since the last advisory. The hurricane continues to maintain a large circular eye that has warmed slightly, surrounded by a nearly uniform ring of deep convection. There is a faint asymmetry in the convective distribution, suggestive of northerly or north- northwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model output. Satellite classifications were T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have held steady at 6.7/132 kt. A blend of these data is used to set the initial intensity at 130 kt. Even though large-scale atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain relatively favorable around Jimena during the couple of days, the intensity guidance indicates that Jimena should begin to weaken soon. The weakening appears to largely be a function of slowly decreasing SSTs along the cyclone's path. Some westerly shear and a larger drop-off in oceanic heat content later in the forecast period suggest continued gradual weakening should occur, but neither the atmosphere nor ocean should produce conditions hostile enough to result in the cyclone's rapid decline. The one caveat to the intensity forecast is that Jimena, already exhibiting some characteristics of an annular hurricane, could weaken more slowly than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is somewhat above the multi-model consensus and is in best agreement with the HWRF model that shows slower overall weakening. Jimena's heading has been a bit more westerly since the previous advisory, but a longer-term average motion estimate is 290/14. A longwave trough, extending southwestward from the U.S. west coast, has eroded the subtropical ridge ridge between 140-150W. As Jimena nears this weakness during the next few days, its forward speed should gradually decrease on a slightly more poleward heading. In the absence of much steering from days 3 to 5, Jimena should drift northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast has hardly changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.0N 132.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.3N 140.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.3N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.1N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 20.2N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-08-31 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 310248 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) 4(30) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-08-31 04:48:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310247 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.5W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 936 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 250SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.5W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.2N 136.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 140.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 143.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 143.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-08-31 04:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...INTENSE HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 the center of JIMENA was located near 15.0, -132.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 936 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 18
2015-08-31 04:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310247 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015 ...INTENSE HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 132.5W ABOUT 1525 MI...2450 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 132.5 West. Jimena is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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