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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 21
2015-08-31 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 312034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 ...JIMENA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 136.8W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.8 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, followed by slow weakening. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 21
2015-08-31 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 312034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.8W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.8W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2015-08-31 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 312034 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 22(37) 11(48) 3(51) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-08-31 16:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 14:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 14:52:24 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-08-31 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 311445 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena continues to be a powerful hurricane. Recent microwave data and infrared satellite images suggest that the system still has concentric eyewalls. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and has a diameter of about 20 n mi, and the convective pattern is slightly asymmetric with cloud tops slightly warmer west of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates were all 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, therefore, the initial wind speed remains 130 kt. The hurricane is now moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a mid-level high pressure system to the north of the cyclone. This ridge is expected to break down during the next couple of days while a trough deepens near the west coast of the United States. This pattern evolution should weaken the steering currents for Jimena, causing a gradual slow down and a turn to the northwest during the next several days. The track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks were made to the previous track forecast. The new NHC track prediction lies close to the various consensus aids. Jimena is expected to more or less maintain its intensity during the next day or so while it remains over 28 deg C water and in a very low wind shear environment. Fluctuations in strength are possible during that time due to the ongoing eyewall cycles. After that time, a slow weakening is expected while water temperatures lower along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast lies on the high side of the guidance and is a little above the previous intensity forecast, giving some weight to the global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 15.6N 135.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.0N 137.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.6N 138.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 17.3N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.9N 142.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.9N 143.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 20.9N 143.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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