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Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 23
2015-09-01 10:47:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010846 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 ...JIMENA STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 139.1W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 139.1 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2015-09-01 10:46:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010845 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.9N 140.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.4N 141.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.9N 142.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.3N 143.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 139.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
2015-09-01 05:22:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 02:43:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 03:09:27 GMT
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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-09-01 04:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010245 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015 Jimena is experiencing another eyewall replacement. Satellite data show a double eyewall structure within the hurricane's inner core, with the eye having become cloud-filled and less defined throughout the day. There has also been a dramatic warming of cloud top temperatures during the past 12 hours or so. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased substantially since the last advisory, and a blend of latest Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB is used to lower the intensity to 115 kt. Although the vertical wind shear should be extremely low and Jimena should still be moving over SSTs greater than 28 deg C during the next 48 hours, the intensity guidance shows slow weakening. Neutral thermodynamic conditions and a notable drop-off in oceanic heat content along the cyclone's track likely contributes to a decrease in intensity, at least in the statistical guidance. Regardless, internal dynamics in the hurricane's inner core are likely to be key to the short-term intensity forecast, and given Jimena's current structure of multiple wind maxima at large radii, it is reasonable to expect a slow decay during the next few days. Only at days 4 and 5 does westerly shear increase and the waters become marginally warm. That being said, the large-scale factors do not support anything more than a slow filling. The one caveat is that the cyclone's slow movement could induce oceanic upwelling and result in faster weakening. The new intensity forecast is lowered some from the previous one and is a bit lower than the multi-model consensus after 24 hours, in best agreement with the FSU Superensemble output. The initial motion estimate is 285/14. The tail of a mid-latitude trough, extending south-southwestward from the Pacific Northwest, is forecast to temporarily weaken the subtropical ridge between 140- 155W during the next day or two. As a result, Jimena's forward speed should decrease very soon, and the cyclone should continue to gradually decelerate over the next couple of days. A northwestward to north-northwestward drift in response to the weakness in the ridge is shown by the global models from days 3 to 5. The new track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, albeit not as far east as the consensus in the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 16.3N 138.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.6N 139.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.2N 140.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.2N 143.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 22.0N 144.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
2015-09-01 04:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 the center of JIMENA was located near 16.3, -138.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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